Which way will the wind blow?
Allianz Commercial Hurricane season outlook 2019
Hurricane season 2018 - Review
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. The Atlantic basin had three quiet hurricane seasons from 2013 to 2015, followed by a slightly above average season in 2016 and an extremely active season in 2017. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season ended up being slightly above average and will primarily be known for two hurricanes that brought significant damage and loss of life to the continental US. Hurricane Florence made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in southeastern North Carolina on September 14, but, like Harvey in 2017, it slowed down considerably, bringing record flooding to portions of North and South Carolina where over the course of four days it dumped as much as 36 inches of rain in some locations – the equivalent of around nine trillion gallons of water [1]. It was the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and at least 55 deaths were attributed to the storm, with economic losses reaching at least $17.9bn [2].
On October 7, Hurricane Michael formed and strengthened over the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in the Florida Panhandle with wind speeds up to 155 mph and storm surge up to 14 feet. Damages in the US are estimated to have exceeded $15bn [3]. It was the strongest hurricane to ever landfall in the Florida Panhandle and only the second recorded Category 5 storm to hit the northern Gulf Coast [4].
Accuracy of pre-season forecasts in 2018
Hurricane season 2019
Outlook: Above average Hurricane season
Hurricane season 2019: Predictions by institution
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Source*
|
Forecast publish date
|
Tropical storms**
|
Hurriances**
|
Major Hurricanes**
|
US Storm landfalls**
|
US Hurricane landfalls**
|
Rating
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TSR (long-term norm: 1950-2018) | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | Long term normal | |
Comparison: 2018 average Hurricane forecast | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 2 | 1 | Near normal | |
Comparison: 2018 average Hurricane actual | 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | Slightly-above normal | |
2019: Forecast range | 12-16 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | Near normal | |
AccuWeather* | April 4 | 12-14 | 5-7 | 3-4 | - | - | Near- to slighlty- above normal |
CSU* | April 4 | 13 | 5 | 2 | - | - | Below normal |
TSR* | April 5 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | Slightly below normal |
NCSU* | April 16 | 13-16 | 5-7 | 2-3 | - | - | Normal |
GWO* | February 25 | 13 | 6 | - | 2 | - | Near-average |
NOAA* | May 23 | 9-15 | 4-8 | 2-4 | - | - | Near normal |
** Tropical storm: > 39 mph / > 63 km/h; Hurricane: > 74 mph / > 119 km/h; Major hurricane: > 111 mph / > 178 km/h, Categories 3-5
Summary
Conclusion
It is important to consider that only one hurricane or a super storm like Sandy making landfall could have a catastrophic impact on the insurance industry. It does not require an active hurricane season for the insurance market to experience significant losses.
“With the start of the hurricane season looming, even as we go to press a low pressure system has formed north of the Bahamas and is the first named tropical system of 2019 – Andrea,” says Andrew Higgins, Senior Regional Technical & Expertise Manager, Americas, at AGCS.
“Is this a precursor of an active hurricane season ahead or will this be a normal year for hurricane activity? We truly do not know, of course, what the future holds, and therefore, it is extremely important that any business located in a hurricane prone area be prepared to mitigate against the risk of wind, water and storm surge and have an adequate continuity plan rehearsed and in place just in case – not only this season, but each and every year.”
[2] StormGeo, Hurricane Florence, September 17, 2018
[3] Storm Geo, Hurricane Michael, October 11, 2018
[4] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Hurricane Michael: National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report, May 17, 2019
[5] Bloomberg, Hurricane Harvey was second most expensive storm in US history, January 25, 2018
[6] Insurance Journal, Hurricane Katrina: The numbers tell their own story, August 26, 2015
[7] Swiss Re, At USD 144 billion, global insured losses from disaster events in 2017 were the highest ever, sigma study says, April 10, 2018
[8] Colorado State University (CSU), Summary of 2018 Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and verification of authors’ seasonal and two-week forecasts, November 28, 2018
[9] CSU
[10] CSU, Researchers predicting slightly below average 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, April 4,2019
[11] Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), April forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2019, April 5, 2018